Golden Matrix Group, Inc. (GMGI)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Preliminary FY 2024 consolidated revenue guidance was $150.0M, up 61% YoY vs FY 2023 revenue of $93.0M; pro forma combined GMGI+Meridianbet would be ~$163.0M. Management cited strong performance across key markets, AI-driven product launches, and new entries in South Africa, Peru, and Australia as drivers .
• Q3 run rate was solid: revenue $41.0M, gross profit $22.4M, and Adjusted EBITDA $4.34M; however GAAP EPS was $(0.03) with an operating loss as SG&A stepped up post-acquisition .
• Strategic Q4 developments: Meridianbet progressed toward a Brazil operating license (final licensing steps underway), Expanse Studios filed for Ontario B2B registration, and GMGI resumed its stock repurchase program with ~$4.958M authorization; liquidity remained strong with $38.4M cash and $17.5M current portion of long-term debt at 9/30/24 .
• Stock reaction catalysts: buyback resumption, regulatory traction in Brazil and Ontario, and FY revenue step-up; offset by Q3 GAAP loss and high SG&A ahead of integration and scaling .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• “Golden Matrix’s Q3 performance demonstrates our commitment and success in building sustainable, long-term growth” — revenue +85% YoY to $41.0M, gross profit $22.4M, AEBITDA $4.34M .
• GMAG B2B aggregator scaled materially: wagering volume +84% to $1.4B with high-margin game additions and retention tools driving engagement and profitability .
• Brazil licensing progressed (formal notice to proceed; funds allocated for licensing fee) and Expanse filed Ontario B2B registration—expanding regulated footprint in high-growth markets .

What Went Wrong

• Q3 GAAP loss of $(3.30)M and diluted EPS $(0.03) on elevated SG&A ($23.38M) and FX/interest headwinds; operating income turned negative to $(0.98)M .
• Accounting complexity: Meridianbet deemed the accounting acquirer; GMGI’s Q1 2024 not included in 2024 revenue and all GAAP comparisons use Meridianbet’s baseline, complicating trend analysis and optical growth rates .
• Currency fluctuations and restructuring costs impacted non-GAAP reconciliation; management flagged marginal currency impacts across subsidiaries in Q3 and noted non-GAAP adjustments and restructuring costs .

Financial Results

Consolidated P&L Snapshot (Quarterly)

FY Revenue Guidance vs Prior Year

FY 2024 Geographical Revenue Split (Preliminary)

KPIs (Meridianbet/GMGI Operating Metrics)

Guidance Changes

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• Brian Goodman (Q3 PR): “Golden Matrix’s Q3 performance demonstrates our commitment and success in building sustainable, long-term growth…” .
• Meridianbet CEO Zoran Milosevic (Q3 PR): “Our ground-breaking 5th generation platform [is] setting a new benchmark in the global betting and iGaming industry… All indicators point to FY2024 being a landmark year for performance” .
• CEO Update (Dec 6): “Brazil’s regulated online sports betting and iGaming market is projected to reach $5.6 billion GGR by 2025… The Brazilian license will certainly be a game-changer for the Company” .
• Buyback release: “All divisions of the Company are currently performing at or above expectations… we are currently servicing all debt in cash, instead of equity” .

Q&A Highlights

• No formal Q4 2024 earnings call transcript available; Q3 results were released via 8-K with presentation/webcast access, and Q2 included an earnings call but the transcript captures prepared remarks rather than a detailed analyst Q&A -.
• Management reiterated accounting treatment (Meridianbet as acquirer), targeted annual revenue >$150M and AEBITDA >$13M by 2025, and disciplined M&A focus on profitable, cash-positive assets .

Estimates Context

• Wall Street consensus estimates from S&P Global for Q2–Q4 2024 and FY 2024 were unavailable at the time of retrieval; no revenue, EPS, or EBITDA consensus data was returned for GMGI (S&P Global).*
• Implication: We cannot mark beats/misses vs consensus for Q4. Post-audit FY results (expected March 2025) may prompt the sell-side to initiate/refresh formal coverage and estimates .

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Regulatory momentum is a central 2025 catalyst: Brazil license advancement and Ontario B2B filing position GMGI for incremental regulated-market growth; watch for formal approvals and launch timelines .
• FY 2024 revenue step-up (+61% YoY to $150.0M prelim) underscores scale benefits post-Meridianbet consolidation; Europe ex-UK drives mix (59.34%) with diversified contributions across UK, Asia, Africa, Americas, Australia .
• Near-term optical pressure: Q3 GAAP loss and elevated SG&A reflect integration and scaling costs; monitor operating leverage and SG&A normalization against AEBITDA trajectory ($4.34M in Q3) .
• Liquidity supports buybacks and M&A: $38.4M cash vs $17.5M current portion of long-term debt and buyback resumption (~$4.958M capacity) provide capital allocation flexibility; management stated debt is serviced in cash .
• Product/tech differentiation via AI and 5th-gen platform should aid engagement and margins across GMAG and Meridianbet; next updates on wagering/GGR could validate sustained momentum .
• Accounting acquirer treatment (Meridianbet) affects comparability; rely on run-rate and audited FY release (March 2025) for clearer trajectories .
• Trading lens: Regulatory headlines (Brazil approval), buyback execution, and FY audit timing are likely near-term stock movers; fundamental investors should track SG&A discipline, FX impacts, and cash conversion through 1H25 .

*Values retrieved from S&P Global.